CRAIG'S RECENT TRACKER WINNERS: DULAS 6/1, DELTA'S ROYALTY 4/6, PRINCE KAYF 40/1 (FB PAGE), ELEON 15/2, CELESTRAN 9/4, ORIENTAL MYSTIQUE 4/1, BYE BYE LADY 3/1, KING LEONIDA 13/8, DONNYBROOK 4/11, AL RUFAA 11/2, ALL YOU WISH 33/1, ANASTARSIA 3/1, CONVICT 6/4, GRAVITY FORCE 8/1, THEOTHERSIDE 33/1, NIGHT COLOURS 7/1, PLYMOUTH ROCK 11/4, POCKET SQUARE 9/4, PANIC ROOM 5/2, BAND PRACTICE 11/4, CAPE PALACE 4/11, PALACE PIER 11/8, IT'S GOOD TO LAUGH 8/13, ROMAN VISION 5/4, HURAIZ 2/1, ROYAL CRUSADE 5/6, VALKAN STAR 1/3, FESTIVE START 7/2, IMPRESSOR 13/8, SURF DANCER 4/7, MASTER MCGRATH 13/8, ESHAASY 13/8, PERSUASION 16/1, PASSION FOR FASHION 3/1, ANGEL OF DELIGHT 12/1, LAZULI 11/10, TAMMANI 9/2, COBRA EYE 15/8, MORISCO 6/1, ETHIC 4/6, ABSTEMIOUS 11/8, BOOMER 3/1, SEIZE THE TIME 2/1, TREBLE TREBLE 9/2, NASAIYM 6/4, DARK LADY 11/10, FLEETING PRINCE 11/10, WELL OF WISDOM 3/1, DR SIMPSOM 4/5, HOT TOUCH 7/2, MAN OF THE NIGHT 4/6, SO SHARP 11/10, IFFRAAZ 7/4, BILL NEIGH 13/8, DRAMATIC SANDS 6/4, DRAGON COMMAND 5/1, MIA DIVA 8/1, RAAHY 5/6, LINCOLN BLUE 7/2, HOMESPIN 6/4, FRED 10/1, PINATUBO 3/1, KING'S COMMAND 2/1, ETON COLLEGE 11/2, SHAMMAH 2/1, BIG CITY 5/1, THREAT 14/1, GOOD VIBES 11/1, MISTY GREY 14/1, ROSE OF KILDARE 6/5, RAYONG 7/2, LORD OF THE LODGE 8/1, WAR STORM 7/2, IFFRAAZ 4/1, OCASIO CORTEZ 7/4...

Friday, 22 November 2019

Can I Make Money Betting 2YO Outsiders?


We love to hit a bookmaker for six. 

The best way to do just that is to hit them hard in the pocket, just left of the cricketer's box (that's where they keep that mouse-trap wallet). 

I've written a few posts for Craig's Betting Blog. In fact, I've mentioned a few huge priced winners. One my brother nabbed years ago called Puggy. Betting on the exchanges he bet £20 and won £4,000. 

Amazing hey. 

When you hear people getting big priced winners it feels like everyone is doing it. Earlier this year Craig had a bet on a horse called Intimate Moment trained by Philip McBride. This daughter of Mustajeeb ran at Great Yarmouth, cruising home by three lengths. It won like a favourite. 

Guess the odds? 


33/1 

Take a look at the full result here

Once again, it makes finding these speculative-priced winners a child's play. 

But is that really true?


I want to know the facts...

There is only one way we can quantify the true chance of anything statistical and that is by running a study with data. This blog is dedicated to two-year-old horse racing. So we need to know how many two-year-old races are run over the Flat turf season (2019) which starts with the Brocklesby Stakes (March) and concludes about mid-November at Doncaster. 

In total, we are talking about 1024 races. 

I reviewed the winners starting price (SP) for all these horses. If backing these outsiders is so straightforward then the data should reveal horses winning at odds bigger than 20/1 are common. 


It's at this point you may want to stop for a second or two and consider that statement: 

''Horses winning at odds bigger than 20/1 are quite common''. 

What do you think?

If you had a multiple choice question and the answers were: common, unlikely, rare as hen's teeth. 

What would your answer be? 

This is what I mean about knowing the answer to a question rather than just imagining. You either know something or you don't. 

When I studied psychology I remembered a maxim: ''Without objective testing theories are only guesses however good''.

It's a fact. 

I think if someone had asked me the question of how many two-year-old winners won over the Flat turf season 2019 at odds over 20/1 I would have looked quite stupid. 

Why? Because I would have imagined the number was much higher than it is. 

So can you imagine the number of winners priced over 20/1?

Amazingly, it is just 9 horses, from over 1,000 races. 

It doesn't seem possible. 

But it's true. 

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