Monday 11 March 2019

Who's on the Elliott money train? (Cheltenham Festival 2019 - Day 1)

Cheltenham has finally arrived this week. I won’t lie am not one for betting on the National Hunt races much but who can resist a Cheltenham Festival flutter especially after studying statistics and coming to the conclusion that a certain Gordon Elliott is going to clean up for the third year in a row (maybe wishful thinking on my part). So I will put my money where my mouth is. 

I won’t be betting big just a low stake win bet on each of his horses just to see if my study was worth doing. I was really encouraged to see the softer ground forecast this week because that’s what I based my study around.

My betting strategy is going to be as follows, back every horse he runs (that’s it really) and to make things a little difficult on my part I will be putting my bets on the night before as I am in work till 2 pm and still one of the few punters who will put his bets on in the betting shop and not online so hopefully won’t lose too much value.

Day 1: Looking at the first race: Supreme Novices Hurdle. Last year Mengli Khan ran a blinder to finish third at 14/1 for Gordon Elliott and the year before he sent 25/1 shot Labaik to win so I will be hoping one of his two horses gives me a good start to the meeting. Felix Desjy is the first and I guess will be leading from the front and trying to hang on and my second chance is Vision D’Honneur who should like the softer ground and has J W Kennedy on board.

No runners for Gordon the last two years in the second race of the day but this year he will send out Hardline with D N Russell on board who seems to have a good bond with the horse and looking at the trainer comments on Attheraces stable tour he thinks Hardline will like the softer ground.

The third race of the day sees Noble Endeavour take his chance with Russell on board again, another big price at the time of writing. The 100 odd daybreak was a bit of a worry for me but finished third after a 77 day in 2107 must run well fresh. 

Then, of course, in the Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy, we have the brilliant Apple’s Jade (pictured) who has to be a lot of peoples banker of the meeting, I won’t get rich if this is Elliott's only winner on day 1 but a winner is a winner I guess.

On the other end of the scale, I would love Lackaneen to win the Mares’ Hurdle, who is currently priced around 66/1, yes more wishful thinking on my part but stranger things have happened. 

Triple handed in the Novice Handicap chase with Cubomania, Ben Dundee and Roaring Bull, all good prices but am not holding my breath here as he doesn’t have the best record in this race. Last but not least he runs Gun Digger in the National Hunt Challenge Cup which Tiger Roll won back in 2017.

Could be a great day or I won’t be having another bet all week (only kidding), hopefully I can add another post this week with updates but depends on time, one thing is for sure if you see the Gordon Elliott money train roaring in again this year be sure to know am definitely on board. 

Good luck all.