Horse Racing: Betting Against the Favourite & Why It Makes Sense

By its very nature, the favourite is headline news. The good, old, jolly, is the horse punters want to win and the bookmakers won't to lose. Favourites come and go. We've seen them 'hose up' 'impressively' and others tailed off last. But what are we meant to make of the chance of the favourite in any given race?

Now, that is a very open question. Why? Because in truth we can only take each horse as an individual (or try too because everything is relational). Most punters bet on the favourite. It may have the best form, the biggest reputation, or run in an egg and spoon race and look a little better than the rest of the field. Let's face it, someone has to win. 

But is betting on the favourite a good idea?

If your horse wins - it's an excellent idea. There is vaue in a winning 1/20f as it shows a 5% return on investment. Better than putting your money in the bank some may say. But even the shortest priced favourites may be beaten. Even the best of the best horses lose. The maxim: 'There is no certainty in racing'. 

So the question we need to ask is on average is it a good idea to bet on the favourite? Let's say you have 100 bets on favourites. This could be categorised in a number of ways from a random selection, your picks or a professional tipping service. The answer to winning or losing is clearly based on skill. 

Someone who is excellent at punting may show a profit. 

If you make your betting pay you are a winner. 

But betting on the favourite isn't a sure way of making money. It was never going to be that easy, hey. If you bet on every favourite you would lose money. So skill is involved. But what I would say to any gambler who makes their betting pay dedicated to backing the favourite (often seen as the best horse in the race). Perhaps you would be better off using your skill to select speculative-priced horses? That 33/1 shot each-way would return a great profit for a place let alone a win. 

From my betting perspective I have a maxim: 'I always look to take on the favourite when betting in two-year-old races'. 

I do this for a number of reasons: 

1) Often two-year-old debutantes are price by trainer and reputation but inexperience often sees even the best horses lose. 

2) Many horse trainers (often the larger stables) don't have the best strike rate with favourites. This is why you need to understand data to see the bigger picture. 

3) Very often a favourite has had a few hard races and sooner or later they are likely to regress and lose. They lose as a beaten favourite. This is a dream angle for bookmakers and a weakness for you as a punter. 

4) It's surprising how many times a strong favourite is beaten by a smart debutante. This doesn't happen by accident. These horses are often followed by opposing trainers who have a form line from a previous race and they are confident of the win. It also offer a bigger price and these juveniles are usually well backed.

5) Also, favourites are vulnerable. They are often forced a short price irrespective of changes of going, change in distance and many other variables. 

Whether you bet on favourites or not is a matter of opinion. Many people simply bet on the favourite every time. The answer is simple are you winning or losing betting on favourites? 

One last aspect is the thought that while you are focused on the favourite you are missing a bigger priced winner. 

I would focus on an area of racing you enjoy but don't be too quick to bet on the favourite. Or, at least if you do, make sure you understand that every favourite isn't a good thing. In fact, many are a losing waiting to happen. 

Author: Jason 

Photo: JC