Saturday 22 April 2023

12:55 Thirsk Racing Tips (22nd April)

12:55 Thirsk - 

Valadero went close in the Brocklesby and understandably fancied to go well on this second start at odds on. Ffrench Davis is firing on all cylinders with Amo Racing Limited and it’s an exciting time for this stable. The form of the Brocklesby has been franked to some extent and Valadero looks straightforward and will find this faster going and course to his strength. The only slight negative I can see is I wonder if this colt may be outpaced in the early stages of this race and finish with purpose. If betting odds-on you may find bigger odds are available in-running. These fears may not arise, with that initial experience onside. 

However, it may be a fair comment with Kevin Ryan’s Sergeant Wilko in opposition. This son of Bungle Inthejungle wasn’t overly fancied on debut at Musselburgh but looked fit and well. A good-looking colt with size and scope. The Musselburgh race slightly fell apart that day but the first two pulled clear of the third. Sergeant Wilko looks pretty fast from the stalls and it could well be the case he has the favourite outpaced for at least the first two furlongs. It wouldn’t surprise me if Valadero has the class to win but it may well be a battle and I wouldn’t be against the view Sergeant Wilko has holds some claims. It’s very unlikely the Ryan’s charge will touch each-way prices but it would look a sound bet if happening. On the exchanges Sergeant Wilko is about 5/1 which may prove value if the bet in running. I think Sergeant Wilko will lead and you may be able to get a point or two in your pocket if Valdero is slightly outpaced. You are always playing with fire with this type of bet but it is one angle to consider. I doubt there will be much value about the two favourites but an intriguing race. 

Of the others, *Farah M was half fancied on debut (actually in one of David Barron’s better price guide which suggested a chance that day) but after showing pace dropped out tamely. Unless seriously backed (single figures) I would take a watching brief. 

Of the unraced, Richard Fahey’s Bombay Bazaar may have some hope. It’s a stiff ask to beat two experienced juveniles who have show a level of ability but not impossible. Fahey has a decent share of debut winners in April and they can go well at a price. However, on balance, I would think the favourites will be too strong. 

Tim Easterby has a couple of debutantes here. April is a month that has seen about 50% of all debut winners. That may sound a positive and he can pop up with big priced winners but a 2% strike rate from a sample of over 700 horses is pretty desperate. It’s intriguing to see that someone on Betfair wants almost £3000 at odds of 29/1 on Oceanic Wonder. Does this mean someone fancies its chance? Time will tell. I can’t say I would be tempted to bet. A similar story for Patasola, who doesn’t really inspire. 

Nigel Tinkler is another trainer who doesn’t have a very good strike rate with debutantes. Socialise cost £48,000 at the yearling sales so may have something going for him but I
 wouldn’t be betting today. Tinkler has had four two-year-old winners from a sample of 200+ horses and although one prevailed at 125/1 a 2% win rate with debutantes says it’s hard work. 

One last word for Seb Spencer’s Arc Shadowfax, who cost 12,000 guineas. This horse was entered for the Brocklesby which does give some aspect of interest. However, the trainer isn’t known for training juveniles and at odds of 50/1 you have to consider this will be a challenge. 

Conclusion: This looks a two-horse race. Valadero is all the rage in the betting and I wouldn’t knock the odds-on shot. Ffrench Davis has been flying this season and it is a pure delight to witness. Like a phoenix from the flames. To all ways of thinking, Valadero is a winner without a penalty. Touched 1.01 on debut in the Broclesby but beaten. Tiring in the closing stages. I’m looking forward to see how this race pans out with Sergeant Wilko, who looked a winner himself. These two juveniles look winners in waiting but there is a difference in their style of racing. I can see Ryan’s colt leading and Valadero may have to play catch up. You may be saying: ‘Who cares, Valdero will win this in style.’ He may do. However, it is worth noting that he took time to gather speed on debut. That may have been due to inexperience but it may well happen here today giving Sergeant Wilko a lead. That could well see the in running markets change and may even give Sergeant Wilko a hope of winning. If you think that, you will get a much bigger price betting on the exchanges. A race to enjoy whichever way you bet.


Author: Jason

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