Tuesday 15 November 2022

4:12 Newcastle Racing Tips (15th November)

A Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 6f. 

A competitive race. In fact, I imagine a few of these are turning up convinced they will be seeing a winning effort. 

Lady Marie was well fancied on debut and in some ways was a little bit disappointed. However, there could be more to come for this daughter of Shamardal. Jamie Spencer takes the ride, again, and from a statistical point of view hold very good each-way claims. 

William Haggas hasn't been showing too much success with his two-year-olds this season but they have been showing more this latter part of the season. Nine Tenths was relatively fancied on debut and finished with some spirit after being out the back in testing ground. A costly 300,000g purchase for St Albans Bloodstock Limited is a decent looking filly and should show good improvement today. 

Red Maids hails from John Gosden's stable which has been in flying form. Ran a fair race on debut but disappointed second start when fancied in the betting. Looked to go a stride too fast and stopped quickly in the closing half furlong. I thought the jockey looked down a few times and there may have been an issue. Dropping in distance may well be a positive.

To add to the competitive nature of this race P J McBride fields Rhythmic Acclaim who was very well supported on debut. Racing in the silks of PMRacing, this daughter of Acclamation had a wide draw on debut and a terribly slow start which out pay to any real hope of winning. However, this filly ran on well indicating the money was informed and after a couple of week's off course should hold fair each-way claims. 

Casamigos has been fancied on her last two starts and progressively disappointing. Once again, there has been money for this filly. Fourth start always brings concerns and a horse I would rather watch than bet. 

Interesting to see if Lady Primrose does better today. Cost a lot of money [260,000 Euros] but need to be much sharper here. 

Conclusion: This looks a potentially competitive race. From a statistical point Lady Marie and Rhythmic Acclaim hold strong each-way claims. Nine Tenths is likely to improve for her debut and another who is fancied from a statistical view. Red Maids could bounce back after disappointing last time. Drops back in distance but still something to prove. The betting should help pick between the lines but I'd be hoping Lady Marie and especially P J McBride's filly have enough ability to hit the frame. 

Author: Jason 

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