Tuesday 22 March 2022

Brocklesby Conditions Stakes 2022 (Pointers if you fancy a Bet)

The first big race of the year is the Brocklesby. It's not a race I would be getting involved in personally, debutantes drive me mad. We can all look through pedigrees but at the end of the day are they fully tuned for the first race of their career? I will mention a few pointers if you fancy a bet. The last filly to win the Brocklesby was Bill Turner's Sally's Dilemma back in 2008. Richard Fahey, Mark Johnston all target this race, Mick Channon another who could be a trainer worth looking out for after Izzer won for him in 2018 and Wonderful World finished second last year. Talking of last year, how good was the winner, Chipotle? I do love trainer Eve Johnson Houghton and she came up trumps with the Havana Gold gelding who has won four races to date and won £139,714 in prize money ending the season with an official rating of 101. This year's early declarations are as follows: 

First Declaration stage (19 entrants) 

1: BEACH BREEZE (Footstepsinthesand ex Miss Buckshot) Colt 

Trained by Charlie & Mark Johnston and purchased for 35,000 gns at the October Yearling Sales. Dam Miss Buckshot had three wins to her name, none over the minimum distance. Offspring include the James Tate trained Dream Shot who was a lovely type winning first time out and went on to finish second in the Listed Dragon Stakes. 

Stats and pointers: Mark Johnston has won this race twice with Ravenhoe in 2015 and The Last Lion in 2016 who was one of the most successful juveniles of his generation. Normally starts the season with a bang. Over 8/1 normally a negative. 

2: BLATANT (Brazen Beau ex Savanne Sauvage) Colt 

Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton and owners The Woodway 20 are back again after winning this last year with the superb Chipotle. The Brazen Beau colt was purchased for 20,000 gns at the Yearling Sales and is unraced dam Savanne Sauvages first foal. 

Stats and pointers: Doesn't have the largest string of 2yos but always comes up with a few nice ones. Over 10s a negative. Has a decent fto strike rate. 

3: CONFEDERATION (Brazen Beau ex My Angel) Colt 

Trained by John Butler and purchased for 9,000 gns at the October Yearling Sales. Dam average to say the least running four times for trainer Olie Pears in 2017. 

Stats and pointers: No first time out winners for trainer. Poor 2yo record 

4: CORAJI (Expert Eye ex Omneeya) Filly 

Trained by the excellent George Boughey. A cheap purchase at 6000 gns for first season sire Expert Eye. Dam Omneeya raced one season for Marco Botti, placing a few times. Half-sister to Pride Of Eight who won once over seven furlongs in Ireland last year. 

Stats and pointers: George had an excellent season last year with winners most months. Thunder Love was his first 2yo last season. Five furlongs was definitely his best distance. Anything over 10s is a negative. 

5: DUCHRAY (The Last Lion ex Duchess Dora) Colt 

Trained by Charlie & Mark Johnston. The bay colt was purchased as a foal for 16,000 gns. Dam Duchess Dora was a nice type for David Simcock winning seven times, loved to come off the pace over the minimum distance. Half-brother to the other Mark Johnston horse Red Mirage who won his first three races as a 3yo. 

6: EVOLICATT (Massaat ex Erica Bing) Filly 

Trained by David Evans who has tasted success in this race before. Dam Erica Bing wasn't a bad type for trainer Jo Hughes winning three times as a 2yo and contesting a few decent races. Offspring to Graftonat a disappointing gelding for Evans. 

Stats and pointers: Low strike rate with 2yos. April/May best months. Five furlongs best distance. Over 11s a negative. 

7: HONOUR YOUR DREAMS (Dream Ahead ex Golconde) Colt 

Trained by Adrian Paul Keatley and owned by the Keatley owners group. Purchased for 20,000 gns at the Somerville Sales. Dam Golconde won a race over the minimum distance in France. 

Stats and pointers: Trainer best distance seven furlongs but can pop up with one over five. Over 10s a negative. 

8: I STILL HAVE FAITH (Expert Eye ex The Thrill Is Gone) Colt 

Trained by Ian Williams. Purchased for £46,000 at the Orby Sales. Another by first season sire Expert Eye. Dam won once for Mick Channon, plenty of speed in the pedigree. Offspring include Ibiza Rocks and No More Thrills both winners. 

Stats and pointers: Very small team of 2yos, had a couple of winners past two seasons though. One debut winner last season at 25/1 

9: JIFFY BOY (Mondialiste ex Renaissant) Colt 

Trained by Robyn Brisland. Purchased for just 1500 gns at the Yearling Sales. Dam Renaissant won one race as a 2yo for Richard Hannon. 

Stats and pointers: Another trainer with a small team of 2yos who can pop up with a winner now and again. Five furlongs best distance. Over 10s a negative. 

10: KISS N CUDDLE (Clodovil ex Princess Banu) Colt 

Trained by David Evans and purchased for 45,000 gns at the October Yearling Sales. Dam won once for Mick Channon in her only season racing, five winners from offspring including Jungle inthebungle and Russellinthebushes who David trains now. 

11: KNOWWHATIMEANHARRY (Havana Grey ex Snow Globe) Gelding 

How good would it be if 75 year old trainer Bill Turner won the Brocklesby again? Purchased for £3,500 at the Goffs Sales. Dam unraced. Stats and pointers: Excellent record in race winning it six times. Last victory 2013 with Mick's Yer Man. Last 2yo winner Bill had was 2019. *Mick's Yer Man was sold to race in Hong Kong and renames Always Win.

12: MAN MADE OF SMOKE (Havana Gold ex Ya Halla) Colt 

Trained by David Evans. Dam was originally with Robert Cowell until David purchased her, winning three times over the minimum distance. Offspring include the David Evans trained Hotalena who won five times. 

13: MASCAPONE (Massaat ex Capelita) Colt Trained by Adrian Nicholls and purchased for £4,500 at the Goffs Sales. Dam won a couple of times for Michael Appleby over further. 

Stats and pointers: Small string of 2yos, can pop up with a big priced winner. 

14: PERSIAN FORCE (Mehmas ex Vida Amorosa) Colt 

Nice to see trainer Richard Hannon and owners Amo Racing have an entry here. A 225,000 euro purchase at the Yearling Sales. Dam was unraced but Persian Force is a full-brother to the Richard Hannon trained Gubbass who won first timeout last season and went onto win the Weatherbys Super Sprint. 

Stats and pointers: Five furlongs best distance. Winners all months, May just shading it. Not best strike rate Doncaster. Over 15/2 a negative. 

15: PRIMROSE RIDGE (Aclaim ex Primrose Palace) Filly 

Trained by Darryll Holland and purchased for 8000 gns at the October Yearling Sales. The dam was placed a few times. 

Stats and pointers: Holland's first season training last year and had one winner which was second runner Silks Pass who was backed into 15/8. 

16: ROCKING ENDS (Havana Grey ex Copper Penny) Filly 

Trained by Brett Johnson and purchased for 11,000 gns at the Yearling Sales. Dam won once over seven furlongs for David Lanigan. 

Stats and pointers: Stable has a handful of 2yos, no winners but few placed last season. Nothing at five furlongs. 

17: SASSY REDHEAD (Harry Angel ex Passcode) Filly 

Trained by William Stone and purchased for 8000 gns at the Yearling Sales. First season sire Harry Angel trying to get off the mark here. Dam Passcode only raced four times winning once over a mile. 

Stats and pointers: Trainer had one winning 2yo last season. 

18: SOLEIL BLANC (Fast Company ex Kathy Sun) Filly Trained by David Evans. A 35,000 euro foal. Dam won in Italy. Full-sister to Simmie who won three times for Sylvester Kirk including a Listed race in France. 

19: TEATIME TIPPLE (Pastoral Pursuits ex Mad Jazz) Gelding 

Trained by Tony Coyle. Dam four times in her career. Stats and pointers: Five furlongs best distance. Under 15/2 best. 

Conclusion: Sitting in the fence here, don't think I will have a bet to be honest as to much of an unknown race. If I did it would be something in single figures plus a colt. Obviously Persian Force looks the part and Beech Breeze could be useful if money comes in, I'm pretty sure Eve will be looking to do it again with Blatant. The fairytale would be Bill Turner winning wouldn't it? 

Thanks for reading and good luck.


  1. Great piece Craig. Once 48 hour decs are known, I should be able to do a bit more stat digging.

  2. Thanks mate keep me updated what comes out on top

  3. A race I look at in some depth, precisely because few others do!

    My method is to look at breeding via Dosage Index profiling and then to look at trends, trainers and their ability with 2yo's and a more in depth look at sires and their progeny's performance across a range of metrics.

    I looked at the 4 day decs last night and BLATANT , umm, blatantly stood out, because in addition to hitting many of the above sweet spots, it's also the second oldest in the declarations (SOLEIL BLANC is the oldest), absolute maturity at this stage of the 2yo's career conferring a significant advantage.

    CORAJE looks good up to a point, but being by first season sire Expert Eye, progeny performance stats for EE are non-existent at this stage.

    Of course, the final decs will bring matters into sharper relief but there we go for now.

    Pete - What's Racing About Podcast

  4. Hi Pete, thanks for your comments on this race, I'm pretty sure Eve will be going all out again to do the double here. Age isn't really something I've looked into but keen to find out if it's ah advantage. Need to check your podcasts out I think

    1. Latest episode now available including a brief look at The Brocklesby - thanks for your interest


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