Wednesday 2 February 2022

Why Betting Should Be A Process

Do you have a process when you bet?

Definition: ''A series of actions or steps taken in order to achieve a particular end.''

It's like making a cup of tea. You have the cup, with tea bag, spoonful of sugar, milk at the ready. You've been waiting 30 minutes because you forgot to switch the kettle on. See what happens when you don't know or stick to the process. 

Betting on a horse can be the same. 

A clear betting process matters. 

Now, I can pretty much guarantee that most gamblers don't have any process or processes at all. They have a haphazard approach which just kind of happens without, seemingly, much thought or understanding. 

Considering the majority of gambler bet in this manner, you may say: ''Who gives a toss!''

However, you may be losing money simply because you haven't really thought about the process. To be fair having a process that works takes a level of understanding which may be beyond most gamblers. You need to appreciate your subject matter and that is something that can take years. But wouldn't you rather work in a professional manner to achieve your goals? 

I write these words but it doesn't mean I don't make mistakes. I do. They are annoying. Horse racing has the knack of making you stop and think. It's like someone is trying to help you along the road to finding winners but you have to suffer a little pain. That's why it pays to listen and learn. The process matters. You put the steps in the wrong order and you're on a loser. 

For example, let's take a look at result of the 5:20 Wolverhampton, 1st February, 2022. 

Source: Racing Post 

A lovely performance from Yaahobby for Antony Brittain and connections. This well-bred gelding, a son of Kodiac, out of a Group-winning mare, was purchased at the Tattersalls Autumn Horses-in-Training Sale 2021 for the sum of £17,000. Originally in training with William Haggas and in the ownership of Shadwell Estate for £300,000. 

This is what Antony Brittain said:

I noticed a few punters won good cash betting on Yaahobby at odds as big as 25/1. There was a little bit of money for this gelding before the off. 

I made a mistake not betting on this winner. 

It was all to do with the process. I got it wrong. 

I had actually watched this horse quite keenly as a two-year-old on its first three starts. In fact, Haggas had taken the time to enter Yaahobby in two Class 2 Stakes races, which I took as a significant sign. However, things didn't go to plan on all three starts in his formative season, although showing ability second start and fancied in the betting third start. 

I have a lot of information to help me assess the chance of horses and on this occasion I got the process wrong. 

On my studies it's very unlikely a horse that has run three times will win on its fourth start when unfancied in the betting. 

However, it doesn't mean it cannot happen. 

The problem with my process here was that I dismissed the horse without even looking at the horse to assess why this one could, potentially, buck such a trend. In fact, I simply wrote off its chance without even realising Yaahobby was of some interest. So not reviewing each individual horse before the next process meant there was literally no coming back from the initial assumption it was unlikely to win.

It was only after the race and familiarising myself with the individual horse that it dawned on me Yaahobby was a live chance. 

Have a process, but make sure you use each step in the right order as it might be the difference between winning and losing. 

Author: Jason Coote 

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