Tuesday 25 January 2022

The Gambler's Guide to Understanding Andrew Balding's Two-year-old Race Horses

From my extensive research of two-year-old horse trainers, here is my assessment of Andrew Balding, Park House Stables, Kingsclere. 

This research covers two-year-old horses and sample of almost 700 horses covering the Flat turf season (March/April - November). 


Debutantes feature a 7% win rate. 

Debut winners range in price from 5/6 to 50/1. One of few trainers who has a healthy supply of double-figure priced winners. 

Short Priced Debutantes

In general, debutantes priced 11/4 and less are disappointing and lack value. It is a fair indicator that short-priced debutantes have ability and a greater chance of winning on their second start, although they don't detail outstanding statistics. 

When Are Debutantes Most Likely To Win?

Balding isn't an early-season two-year-old trainer. In fact, you are unlikely to see any of his juveniles winning until the month of May. The latter part of the season sees most debut winners with over 50% detailed from August - November. 

Two-Year-Olds On Their Second Start 

Like most trainers, two-year-olds are most likely to win on their second start compared with their debut. Over the duration of this study (many years) horses won more times by a fair percentage. Their odds range from odds of 1/3 - 125/1. 

Interesting Facts

Although winners on their second start can win at extreme odds, in general, horses do not win at speculative odds. The vast majority win at single-figure odds. 

Good luck. 

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