Friday 10 September 2021

Friday's Horse Racing Tips (10th September)

I'll start by saying I don't have any strong fancies today. 

A busy Friday. They seem to save all the two-year-olds for the loving and giving day (Friday's child, if that seems out of context).

Let's have a quick look. 

1:00 Sandown - 

Desert Team, trained by Simon Crisford, is all the rage in the betting. In fact, looking on Betfair, almost 80% of all the money has been bet on this son of Invincible Spirit. If priced 6/4 and less, I really wouldn't oppose this colt. Poet, Level Up and Reversion have all shown glimmers of ability. I am always careful when horses drop down from 6f to 5f because there is a marked difference in pace to the point I would have concerns some may be outpaced. Not a betting race for me although if ultra strong in the betting the favourite will be hard to stop (but holds little value becuase you can never quite tell what a debutante will do). 

1:10 Doncaster - 

A competitive Class 3 race. A few of these are well respected by their stables: Bay Of Honour, Leuven Power & Kingdom Come. Unilaterism is a decent-looking colt, while Galiac, ran well second start for William Muir. 

As you can tell, this looks a right old mix of hopes and dreams. The only thing that would tempt me to bet here would be a speculative price and value. 

I can't see much of that going on. 

I will give you a brief thought about a few:

Leuven Power will improve a good deal for this step up in distance. 

Kingdom Come is held in some regard and showed good pace before tiring on debut. Will strip fitter today and I'd expect a bold show. 

Galiac may have each-way claims at double-figure odds but I don't feel motivated to bet. 

A fascinating race but I'll be watching. 

1:50 Chester - 

A competitive heat. A tricky-looking race with a trio of winners. Artaois may have claims for Simon Crisford. This son of Kodiac showed good pace on debut before dropping back. I'd keep an eye on the betting. If priced 13/2 and less SP holds claims but it wouldn't be a surprise to see this horse drift in the betting which could be a negative. I have Adjourn on my list of 10 Dark Horses and pretty sure this son of Postponed has a level of ability but trying to beat proven horses on debut, especially on a turning course really is a tough ask. I'd be looking at this horse on its second start. I wouldn't feel comfortable betting in this race because it looks tough. 

2:00 Sandown - 

Natasha carries a win penalty but a talented filly. Making Music was a long way behind Gosden's charge at Kempton after a slow start and gradually gathering pace. She is well respected by Muir and I'm sure this daughter of Mastercraftsman will improve quite markedly. However, whether she will improve past Natasha is another thing. If Making Music drifted to the extreme (betting) there might be some hope for a small each-way bet but being two places really knocks that thought on the head. From my perspective, this horse's strength is the place and you'd be hoping for the win, which might need the favourite to blow a gasket. Unlikely a race to make much use. 

4:00 Chester - 

This race was my major hope. However, things change. Betting is all about circumstance and timing. Aegis Power is interesting and looked a fair chance until substantially backed. Definitely a live chance but I can't see much value. Hapap is held in some regard by Richard Hannon. He was very keen on debut and if doing the same here would struggle to win over this extended trip of 1m 2f. A race I would rather watch unless Balding's horse drifts markedly in the betting. Even then, I would rather bet each-way three places, which isn't possible with just seven runners. 

 4:13 Salisbury - 

Wind Your Neck In ran on well on debut and will improve a lot. Island Bandit was a giant-priced winner second time out for Heather Main. A good-looking colt who was simply written-off for a poor debut and being trained by a lesser fashionable yard. You give a decent horse to most trainers and they will do well. Even with a penalty, a horse to be respected. User Kindly pulled fiercely on debut at Yarmouth and has claims if fancied in the betting. There's been money for Paul Cole's Jack D'Arcy who, again, would have claims if priced in single-figure odds. Internal Conflict has recieved a Class 2 entry for Richard Hannon which suggests some hope. While Snapcracklepop is a good looker and could improve on his second start. I'd have to let the betting settle to appreciate what is going on here. Not a race I would be betting. 

All in all, a muddling day. 

Author: Jason Coote 

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