Friday 4 June 2021

1:20 Catterick Racing Analysis (4th June)

1:20 Catterick  - 

I must apologise for posting this late. Been out and about on my bike and just got back and decided to write a quick post. 

Instinction, trained by Bryan Smart, has proven a fair level of ability and it's only burden here is a four-pound win penalty. In truth, this weight will probably not make a big difference to a bold show although the price is  pretty short and there doesn't look much value. 

Karl Burke has a few talented juveniles in his ranks and Illustrating is in the ownership of Clipper Logistics who are no stranger to talented two-year-olds. This bay daughter of Showcasing was withdrawn from the sales so most likely a private sale. The mare was a very talented horse in training with Charles Hills. She won four times from eleven starts including a Group 1, 2 & 3. There's been money for this March foal who could go well. The stable can be a little hit and miss with their fancied debutantes but I'd expect a decent run from her today. Whether she will be experienced enough to beat Instinction is up for debate. A relatively wide draw may be a negative and she wouldn't want to be tardy from the stalls because Smart's winner is likely to make all. 

Another daughter of Showcasing is Archie Watson's Red Showgirl racing in the familiar silks of The Hon R J Arculli. The winning mare was similarly owned, a winner and Listed placed. With the two favourites being so strong in the market, she is priced at 12/1 which may indicate the competitive nature of this race or a slight concern she isn't quite up to the standard of those mentioned. A prime draw may be a blessing. Most of Watson's horses lead so it will be interesting if this filly follows suit. I'd expect to see some money for this horse if fancied to win and there may be an option of a preemptive gamble. In general, winners from this stable are shorter odds. 

Jedd O'Keeffe is an under rated trainer and his two-year-old can go well on their second start. Mystic Moonshadow showed good pace on debut before tiring in the closing stages. Another daughter of Showcasing she cost 27,000 guineas when purchase at the yearling sales by her trainer. A wide draw is a slight concern but she looks the type to lead or sit in behind. She would definitely need to improve on her debut effort and be fitter today. There is a chance she could touch shorter odds in running and may have each-way claims. If seriously weak in the betting I would watch. 


It looks a race which revolves around the favourite. Instinction sets the standard and her ony burden is a four-pound penalty and a couple of races. She is likely to put down a professional effort and experience may be the key to winning. I couldn't bet at such short odds as there is little meat left on the bone. If you fancy an opponent you could well have a price on side if you hope to back a talented horse or hope the favourite regresses or disappoints. I have little doubt Illustration should be respected but the price on offer seems on the short side and a wide draw could be a stumbling block. You wouldn't want to give the favourite an easy lead as that could spell disaster. You may well get bigger odds in running. Mystic Moonshadow has experience on side and could well lead. Whether she is good enough to win is another matter. Improvement is needed and a wide draw could see those early exertions to gain a position take their toll in the closing stages. I'd have to take a watching brief. 

Author: Jason Coote

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