Thursday 20 May 2021

Friday's Thoughts (21st May)

A few two-year-old races today. 

Let's have a quick look at these five juvenile events. Please bear in mind this post has been written on Thursday evening and I often use the betting to help in my assessment. I may well give an update but that might not happen as I'm busy. 

1:10 Goodwood - 

Fall Of Rome is likely to go well here. No surprise considering this son of Frankel is priced 4/9 (at the time of writing). Charlie Appleby has sent out four two-year-olds this season and they haven't visited the winner's enclosure yet. However, Fall Of Rome may well have proved positive on debut at Ascot if a little less inexperienced when racing over 5f. In truth, I didn't think James Doyle was at his best that day. What I did like was the way this colt finished his race and will be a tough nut to crack. I can imagine you saying he should be at prohibitive odds. True. I think this is the best of the Appleby two-year-olds we have seen so far and it would be no surprise to see this April foal win and be targeted for Royal Ascot. 

I must admit, I'm not interested in betting at short odds because you need about an 80% strike rate to make a few quid. Each to their own. 

I see Andrew Balding's Masekela is fancied to go well. Mick And Janice Mariscotti have some nice horses. Balding has seen two juvenile debut winners so far this season. I must admit, he can win on debut but I often find his shorter priced debutantes poor value. Sure, we can only take each horse as an individual. 

Can anything beat the favourite? There are always surprises. One horse that may have half a hope at big odds is Paul Cole's Wild Mountain who was fancied to go well on debut at Kempton when priced 5/2. Racing over 5f in the familiar silks of Mrs Fitri Hay, this son of Aclaim couldn't go the pace and was completely outpaced. Bad news for backers who must have been questioning whether this was one of the worst 5/2 shots they had ever had the misfortune of betting. With the favourite and Balding's horse half fancied in the betting, it's possible this colt will be pushed out in the betting, perhaps to the extreme on the exchanges. Time will tell. So, there may be an opportunity to get a few quid on this horse at big odds. I must say, if this horse is fancied to win, I'd expect it to be backed. Also, it is worth remembering that Paul Cole has very few unfancied horses win on their second start. 

Update: Backed from as big as 55 to 21 on Betfair. I, personally, laid my bet to a no lose bet of 20pts. 

To be fair, I can't see the favourite being beaten. But who wants to bet odds on? (Plenty of people, hey). 

I'm interested to see if Wild Mountain is backed from huge odds which may see an instant profit using the exchanges. 

It's a strange race that I would rather watch than bet. 

I'll have to keep the rest of this post short and sweet as it's taking too much time. 

1:30 Haydock

Wild Beauty looks to have a very good chance. Probably priced to chance so not much meat on the bone. I like an odd speculative bet as you don't need many winners to fill your pockets with loot. 

Friendly Vegan didn't do too much on debut at Hamilton when getting a slow start. However, this filly is a decent looker and I have a hunch she is better than seen. I think Keith Dalgleish's runner is priced about 12/1 (at the time of writing) and she may have half a hope. What would really catch my eye is if this daughter of El Kabeir is backed. I would prefer to wait and see if the gamble ensues. 

1:50 Bath - 

Clive Cox has the Midas Touch with his two-year-olds at Bath. He's already seen two or three juveniles scoot up this season. Caturra was fancied to go well on debut but seemed too inexperience and ill suited by Newmarket. I'm pretty sure this colt is held in some regard and could well breeze along here. The downside, it's very unlikely there is much value betting on this horse. The key to a good bet is value and that often comes about through circumstance. Strange but true. Once again, I'd let the betting settle just to get a feel for this race. If by some strange happening Phinow started favourite I'd be fearful of this horse. 

Update: Caturra well backed. 

2:40 Haydock - 

Interesting to see how Pink Storm goes for this 7f race after disappointing a touch last time out. No great thoughts about this race other than interested to see how Burke's goes. 

5:45 Catterick - 

Two winners head the field. Potentially a nice race although on soft going. I find Catterick a strange course. It's not one of my favourite tracks for finding winners. Will Ellade and Lucy Lulu defy the win penalties? Considering the latter was ridden by an apprentice last time out she may well feel the weight today. I quite like Poppy Petal who doesn't have such a burden. Not the easiest race to assess and in general fancied horses carrying penalties go well. 

Conclusion: Mainly writing this post to fill a space and I can't say I have too many strong opinions. Most that have a hope aren't going to be much of a price. 

Most interesting:

1:10 Goodwood - Fall Of Rome (no price but looks hard to beat)  

1:30 Haydock - Friendly Vegan (ideally if backed)

1:50 Bath - Cattura (not much of a price but should go well)

Author: Jason Coote

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