Tuesday 22 December 2020

1:15 Lingfield Racing Tips (22nd December)

A quick post. 

A 7f Novice Stakes on Standard going. Nine two-year-olds take part, a mix of trainers and form horses verses debutantes. 

If the betting is to be believed, it is a four-horse race. 

Top of the tree is Campeao, whose raced twice for David Simcock, partnered this third time by Jamie Spencer. This son of Acclamation has been placed on his last two starts and sets a fair standard. A wide draw isn't ideal for this odds-on shot, but it's very likely he will get to the rail and lead. 

Definitely the one to beat but there may be some opposition from Roger Varian's debutante, La Tihaty

This March foal is a son of New Bay, out of a French-raced mare. This £60,000 yearling purchase is in the ownership of H H Shaikh Nasser Al Khalifa & Partner, who is no stranger to talented horses [Dark Lion et al]. The betting will help assess the chances of this juvenile. If priced 11/4 and less, it would give additional hope this colt is fancied to be a real challenger to the favourite. I would be surprised if this youngster was that short in the betting, but time will tell. 

Irish raider Darwell Lion heads this way from Ballyhale, County Kilkenny under the care of trainer Miss Ellmarie Holden. This bay colt is sired by The Last Lion out of an unraced mare [Darwell]. I have no idea of the trainer and the betting is the best guide to this one's chances. 

David Evans has had a horrendous year with his two-year-olds. Literally no winners from a vast number of runners. It's A Love Thing wasn't overly fancied on debut and ran on to finish seventh, beaten just under five lengths. This bay gelding, a son of Intrinsic, out of a twice-winning sprint mare. It would be a positive if there was money for this horse although the stable can win at any odds second time out. 

Sylvester Kirk is one of those trainers who pops up every-so-often with a big priced winner, especially on debut. Vina Bay was a 150/1 shot on debut and showed little at Kempton over one mile. Can win at speculative odds but probably best watched. 

The other competitors are priced 50/1+. They are unlikely to figure. 

Conclusion: The favourite [Campeao] has the experience and talent to make this a winning return to racing. Turning courses suit experienced horses over debutantes and this could well be the advantage over La Tihaty, who comes from an exceptional trainer who delivers debut winners on a regular basis. Money would be a positive, and weakness may well be a weakness. However, this horse is likely to be the major opponent. Darwell Lion could be the dark horse of the race. My lack of understanding regarding this trainer is a stumbling block. 

Good luck to all. 

Guest post: Jason Coote

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