Thursday, 12 November 2020

In Search of the Outsider - 2yo Horse Racing Revealed (12th November)

The two-year-old Flat turf season concluded at Doncaster on the 7th November. For posterity, Tipperary Tiger ran out a good winner for Karl Burke. This son of Mayson appeared from the fog with a distinct advantage. 

In many ways this season has been uneventful. However, we have much to be thankful for and we look forward to brighter days ahead.

Craig's Betting Blog has been a shining light and keeping readers informed about two-year-old season like no other. I don't think there is a website on the internet that's had so much content or valued opinion. 

For me, this time of the year is about assessing strength and weakness of trainers for the new season. 

One simple study, but very revealing, is looking at two-year-old racing with a thought to backing a big price winner. 

Who doesn't like to bet on a winner at fancy odds? But what is the likelihood of this happening? For all the data available, you just don't see these kind of statistics. I guess, because people like to keep things to themselves. 

Over the last two Flat turf seasons I have calculated the winners of races for horses priced 20/1 or greater. This season has been shorter, starting in June and concluding in November, while 2019 was the normal format starting on March (30th). 

Just to give you an idea of the number of races for a general 2yo season, 2019 had just about 1000 races (including nursery races). This data, below, doesn't include nursery races. 

In the last two Flat turf seasons (including all-weather racing over this period) there have been 79 winners priced 20/1+. 

Over 70% (57/79) of these winners came on their debut or second start. 

Amazingly 91% (72/79) saw winners on their first three starts.

From assessing the concluding data, all 2yo winners at such lofty prices did so within seven races. 

Clearly, many winners can be found in nursery races, an option for, generally, limited horses. Although from a previous study the number of horses to win nursery races priced 20/1+ was pretty small. 

The missing part of this data is that I don't know the number of horses priced 20/1+ racing fourth time out. Furthermore, I would imagine that most fitting this criteria would be extremely big odds. 

What it does tell us is that if you are betting on a horse priced 20/1+ on its fourth start or later you really are hoping for a minor miracle to win. 

Guest post: Jason Coote 

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