CRAIG'S RECENT TRACKER WINNERS:YOUTH SPIRIT 9/2, INTERNATIONAL GIRL 12/1, VENTURA TORMENTA 4/6, FINAL VOYAGE 9/1, IMPERIAL YELLOW 11/8, BOMB PROOF 6/4, TOP CLASSANGEL 18/1 3RD, ALWIGHWAR 11/8, MUTAZAWWED 1/1, TACTICAL 7/2, ALTHIQUA 2/1, LORD CAMPARI 100/30, MAN OF PROMISE 6/4, ON GUARD 11/2, MAGICAL MORNING 9/4, INHALER 10/3, FIESTA DE VEGA 5/1, CREATIVE FORCE 7/2, RENAISSANCE QUEEN 3/1, AWEEMAWEH 28/1 (FB), SHELDON 50/1 EW (PLACED), GEROLAMO CARDANO 13/2, FANTASTIC MS FOX 13/2 (FB), SHIMMERING 7/4, ARRIVISTE 3/1, DULAS 6/1, DELTA'S ROYALTY 4/6, PRINCE KAYF 40/1 (FB PAGE), ELEON 15/2, CELESTRAN 9/4, ORIENTAL MYSTIQUE 4/1, BYE BYE LADY 3/1, KING LEONIDA 13/8, DONNYBROOK 4/11, AL RUFAA 11/2, ALL YOU WISH 33/1, ANASTARSIA 3/1, CONVICT 6/4, GRAVITY FORCE 8/1, THEOTHERSIDE 33/1, NIGHT COLOURS 7/1, PLYMOUTH ROCK 11/4, POCKET SQUARE 9/4, PANIC ROOM 5/2, BAND PRACTICE 11/4, CAPE PALACE 4/11, PALACE PIER 11/8, IT'S GOOD TO LAUGH 8/13, ROMAN VISION 5/4, HURAIZ 2/1, ROYAL CRUSADE 5/6, VALKAN STAR 1/3, FESTIVE START 7/2, IMPRESSOR 13/8, SURF DANCER 4/7, MASTER MCGRATH 13/8, ESHAASY 13/8, PERSUASION 16/1, PASSION FOR FASHION 3/1, ANGEL OF DELIGHT 12/1, LAZULI 11/10, TAMMANI 9/2, COBRA EYE 15/8, MORISCO 6/1, ETHIC 4/6, ABSTEMIOUS 11/8, BOOMER 3/1, SEIZE THE TIME 2/1, TREBLE TREBLE 9/2, NASAIYM 6/4, DARK LADY 11/10, FLEETING PRINCE 11/10, WELL OF WISDOM 3/1, DR SIMPSOM 4/5, HOT TOUCH 7/2, MAN OF THE NIGHT 4/6, SO SHARP 11/10, IFFRAAZ 7/4, BILL NEIGH 13/8, DRAMATIC SANDS 6/4, DRAGON COMMAND 5/1, MIA DIVA 8/1, RAAHY 5/6, LINCOLN BLUE 7/2, HOMESPIN 6/4, FRED 10/1, PINATUBO 3/1, KING'S COMMAND 2/1, ETON COLLEGE 11/2, SHAMMAH 2/1, BIG CITY 5/1, THREAT 14/1, GOOD VIBES 11/1, MISTY GREY 14/1, ROSE OF KILDARE 6/5, RAYONG 7/2, LORD OF THE LODGE 8/1, WAR STORM 7/2, IFFRAAZ 4/1, OCASIO CORTEZ 7/4...

Thursday, 5 March 2020

Using Statistics to Predict the Brocklesby Stakes Winner

Using Statistics to Predict the Brocklesby Stakes Winner

The Brocklesby Stakes heralds the start of the two-year-old (2yo) Flat Turf season. 

Taking a look at the Wikipedia page for the Brocklesby Stakes this flying five furlongs has taken place at Doncaster racecourse since 1965 when Carholme racecourse in Lincolnshire was closed. Both courses are synonymous with the Lincoln Handicap. 

The Brocklesby Stakes dates back to 1875. In fact, Donovan (1888) won by two lengths and went on to win both the Derby & St Leger. (I can't see a Brocklesby winner doing that in this day and age!).

It's interesting to read that Donovan won the Portland Stakes at Leicester with prize money of £6,000. Which, ironically, paid more money than winning the Derby!

Donovan went on to compete in 21 races, winning 18, finished runner-up twice and third once. 

Major wins included:

New Stakes (1888)
July Stakes (1888)
Middle Park plate (1888) 
Dewhurst Stakes (1888)
Newmarket Stakes (1889)
Epsom Derby (1889)
Prince Of Wales Stakes (1889) 
St Leger (1889)
Lancashire Plate (1889)

But what do modern-day results reveal about future Brocklesby winners?

The last 10-years of Brocklesby Stakes Results: Horse Names, SP, Trainer, Draw, Sex: C/F 

2009 - Hearts Of Fire (12/1)  [Pat Eddery] (14) (C) 
2010 - Chiswick Bay (6/1)  [Richard Fahey] (10) C
2011 - He's So Cool (8/1)  [Bill Turner] (5) C
2012 - My Boy Bill (7/1)  [Mick Easterby] (10) C
2013 - Mick's Yer Man (5/1)  [Bill Turner] (13) C
2014 - Cock Of The North (14/1)  [Scott Dixon] (2) C
2015 - Ravenhoe (7/2)  [Mark Johnston] (2) C
2016 - The Last Lion (4/5)  [Mark Johnston] (3) C
2017 - Santry (4/1)  [Declan Carroll] (2) C
2017 - Requinto Dawn (6/1)  [Richard Fahey] (10) C
2018 - Izzer (4/1)  [Mick Channon] (7) C
2019 - Show Me Show Me (11/4)  [Richard Fahey] (16) C

The last filly to win the Brocklesby Stakes was Bill Turner's Sally's Dilemma in 2008. Other fillies to win since 1988: Serephina (1999) & Charlene Lacy (1998). 

Conclusion: 

Pointers to winning the Brocklesby Stakes can be seen from past runnings. With just three fillies winning since 1988, it tells the colts hold a distinct advantage early season which comes from maturation. The last ten years have been won by colts. Quite often, the race has a sizable field and the draw can play its part. This also relates to the going. It is an advantage for a two-year-old to run against a rail or have it as a guide. On fast ground a high draw is a positive while a low draw may be advantageous in testing conditions. 

In general, leading early-season trainers win this contest. The likes of Richard Fahey, Mark Johnston & Bill Turner. This trio have won seven races between them. It should be noted that Bill Turner last won the race back in 2013 with Mick's Yer Man and recent entrants have struggled. 

The Brocklesby betting is usually a good guide to finding winners. Very few juveniles win at double-figure odds, although it isn't impossible. There have been four horses win at odds bigger than 10/1 since 1988. 

Good luck.  


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