Thursday, 5 March 2020

Using Statistics to Predict the Brocklesby Stakes Winner

Using Statistics to Predict the Brocklesby Stakes Winner

The Brocklesby Stakes heralds the start of the two-year-old (2yo) Flat Turf season. 

Taking a look at the Wikipedia page for the Brocklesby Stakes this flying five furlongs has taken place at Doncaster racecourse since 1965 when Carholme racecourse in Lincolnshire was closed. Both courses are synonymous with the Lincoln Handicap. 

The Brocklesby Stakes dates back to 1875. In fact, Donovan (1888) won by two lengths and went on to win both the Derby & St Leger. (I can't see a Brocklesby winner doing that in this day and age!).

It's interesting to read that Donovan won the Portland Stakes at Leicester with prize money of £6,000. Which, ironically, paid more money than winning the Derby!

Donovan went on to compete in 21 races, winning 18, finished runner-up twice and third once. 

Major wins included:

New Stakes (1888)
July Stakes (1888)
Middle Park plate (1888) 
Dewhurst Stakes (1888)
Newmarket Stakes (1889)
Epsom Derby (1889)
Prince Of Wales Stakes (1889) 
St Leger (1889)
Lancashire Plate (1889)

But what do modern-day results reveal about future Brocklesby winners?

The last 10-years of Brocklesby Stakes Results: Horse Names, SP, Trainer, Draw, Sex: C/F 

2009 - Hearts Of Fire (12/1)  [Pat Eddery] (14) (C) 
2010 - Chiswick Bay (6/1)  [Richard Fahey] (10) C
2011 - He's So Cool (8/1)  [Bill Turner] (5) C
2012 - My Boy Bill (7/1)  [Mick Easterby] (10) C
2013 - Mick's Yer Man (5/1)  [Bill Turner] (13) C
2014 - Cock Of The North (14/1)  [Scott Dixon] (2) C
2015 - Ravenhoe (7/2)  [Mark Johnston] (2) C
2016 - The Last Lion (4/5)  [Mark Johnston] (3) C
2017 - Santry (4/1)  [Declan Carroll] (2) C
2017 - Requinto Dawn (6/1)  [Richard Fahey] (10) C
2018 - Izzer (4/1)  [Mick Channon] (7) C
2019 - Show Me Show Me (11/4)  [Richard Fahey] (16) C

The last filly to win the Brocklesby Stakes was Bill Turner's Sally's Dilemma in 2008. Other fillies to win since 1988: Serephina (1999) & Charlene Lacy (1998). 

Conclusion: 

Pointers to winning the Brocklesby Stakes can be seen from past runnings. With just three fillies winning since 1988, it tells the colts hold a distinct advantage early season which comes from maturation. The last ten years have been won by colts. Quite often, the race has a sizable field and the draw can play its part. This also relates to the going. It is an advantage for a two-year-old to run against a rail or have it as a guide. On fast ground a high draw is a positive while a low draw may be advantageous in testing conditions. 

In general, leading early-season trainers win this contest. The likes of Richard Fahey, Mark Johnston & Bill Turner. This trio have won seven races between them. It should be noted that Bill Turner last won the race back in 2013 with Mick's Yer Man and recent entrants have struggled. 

The Brocklesby betting is usually a good guide to finding winners. Very few juveniles win at double-figure odds, although it isn't impossible. There have been four horses win at odds bigger than 10/1 since 1988. 

Good luck.  


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