Wednesday 13 February 2019

Are You Ready for the Brocklesby Stakes 2019?

After waiting for what seems forever, it’s almost here, the first big race of the 2019 Flat season, the Unibet Brocklesby Stakes. 

When the first two-year-old horses start, it's going to be an exciting year. 

What we have to remember with a two-year-old horse it's like their first day at school. For some, it’s a daunting prospect and they won’t be seen to better effect until the second or even third start once they settle down. However, for some, who are fit and ready to run their race first time out, it’s a start to bigger and better things down the line. 

The ground at Doncaster is normally on the soft side at this time of the year so looking for a horse with some stamina in the pedigree that likes the soft going could be a wise move.

Looking through the stats, the last four years winners have all been priced 4/1 and under. 

2018: IZZER - trained by Mick Channon, was very well backed to start at 4/1 and won nicely from stall 7 and ended up 83 rated.

2017: SANTRY  - trained by D Carroll also priced to run a good race at 4/1 held on from stall 2 before breaking a leg on the gallops and sadly being put down. 

Undoubtedly one of the biggest stars to come out the Brocklesby is a horse named Donovan, trained by George Dawson who raced back 1888. This bay colt was a sensation of his time winning 18 of his 21 starts. He went on to win the Derby, St Leger, narrowly missing out on the English Triple Crown when an unlucky loser in the 2000 Guineas.  In one year he amassed earnings of £55,443. In today's money, that would be over £1M. 

Another exceptional horse, The Last Lion (pictured) trained by Mark Johnston ended up 4/5 favourite on debut when drawn in stall 3. He won impressively before reaching the heights of a 116 rating and becoming one of the most successful juveniles of his generation in Britain. He was retired and sold to become a stallion. 

THE LAST LION was born in Ireland on 12 February 2014, sired by Choisir. His total prize earning were £225,663. He achieved wins at Group class. 

Not up to the standards of The Last Lion, 

2015: RAVENHOE - trained by Mark Johnston was also a short-priced winner at 7/2. Drawn low, again, in stall 2, couldn’t seem to do no wrong with his two-year-olds in the 2015 and 2016 seasons having plenty of success. 

Also, only two horses have won over 10/1 in the last 10 years.

2009: HEARTS OF FIRE - who was 12/1. Another very classy horse trained by Pat Eddery, who won at Group 1 in France.

2014: COCK OF THE NORTH - won at 14/1 for Scott Dixon. 

Last statistics to throw at you is that colts seem to have a big advantage over the fillies with only one filly winning:

2008: SALLY'S DILEMMA  so the stats point to a fancied runner from a low draw and a colt. 

(I will write another post when the declarations come out.)

Good luck everyone, I hope this helps to solve a field full of unraced horses.

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